Obama's new policy was reflected in several other aspects. He is conducting a strategy of placation instead of force deterrence against those so-called "outposts of tyranny," publicly expressing the U.S. desire to establish a "constructive relationship" with Iran on the basis of mutual respect, and to carry out negotiations with Iran without any preconditions. Obama also places stability above democracy in the Middle East. He will refrain from pushing moderate countries like Egypt too hard on democratic reform, and encourage them to play an active role in regional affairs. In his speech, he called for cooperation with Islamic countries in the region in various aspects, trying to promote dialogue and communication with them by fully distributing U.S. "smart power" in science and technology, education, and economy and trade and offering help to them.

Obama's new Middle East policy focuses on proper treatment of the difficult issues in the region. Dealing with the Israeli-Palestinian issue from an all-round point of view is at the top of the agenda. The all-round point of view connects the settlement of the Israeli-Palestinian issue with the settlement of related issues in Syria, Lebanon and Iran, because settling these issues could hasten the Middle East peace process. To pacify Arab anger caused by U.S. ties with Israel, Obama clearly tipped the scale in Palestinians' favor. In his speech he emphasized their right to establish a state, and denied the validity of Israeli settlements.

He also appeared flexible and practical on the Iranian nuclear issue, using the tactic of seducing rather than pressing. The Obama administration intends to persuade Iran to give up its nuclear program by fully mending the U.S.-Iran ties. In the meantime, Obama stressed the common interests between them in supporting Iraq's Shiite administration, fighting against Al Qaeda and Taliban forces, and cracking down on drug trafficking in Afghanistan. The United States expects to establish a solid basis for dialogue with Iran, as the room of cooperation between them grows.

Obama also described his plan to withdraw U.S. military forces from Iraq and explained that because of the changed security situation, the United States has transferred its antiterror focus east to Afghanistan and Pakistan.

The U.S. Government is also streng-thening cooperation with its Arab allies in the region to keep Iran within limits. Obama has approved a nuclear energy cooperation agreement with the United Arab Emirates, arguing the agreement will push forward bilateral cooperation on regional defense and security in the Middle East and the Gulf region. Actually, according to intelligence agencies of Western and Arab countries, Dubai is the nerve center of international illegal trade. Therefore, one U.S. goal in signing the agreement is to cut off Iran's nuclear material smuggling from Dubai.

Obstacles

But the issues in the Middle East are too complicated and difficult to be settled with "smart power" alone. Issues concerning core interests cannot be resolved unless the related countries agree to make compromises. Although the United States, which acts as a force from the outside world, has great influence in the region, its "smart power" cannot work as expected without practical measures.

First, the Israelis' policy toward the Palestinians has become even more hard-line since the Likud, headed by current Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, won the parliamentary elections and organized a right-wing coalition. Although Netanyahu expressed support for a separate Palestinian state for the first time on June 14, Palestinian and Arab leaders rejected his conditions, which include a demilitarized Palestinian state and Palestinian recognition of Israel as a Jewish homeland. He previously rejected a two-state solution in favor of an "economic peace," under which the Israeli settlements would be guaranteed "natural growth." Despite the change in rhetoric, the dominant conservative forces in Israel will make it difficult to change its tough policy and conduct peaceful talks with the Palestinians, especially on core issues like territory plotting, the return of Palestinian refugees and the status of Jerusalem. Therefore, disputes between Israel and the United States are inevitable.

Second, the conflict between Iran and the United States on Iran's regional role and nuclear program is hard to reconcile. To the United States, a nuclear-armed Iran would pose a serious threat to the security in the region and the international community at large and is unacceptable. To Iran, developing nuclear program is crucial to becoming a regional power and coping with the threat from Israel. Iran will not give up its nuclear program without a fight. Besides, the United States considers a stronger Iran to be a potential menace in the Middle East. It will never give up its efforts to contain Iran. Moderate Arab countries also consider Iran a potential threat because of its influence on Shiite Muslims throughout the region. They might work to obstruct U.S. efforts to mend relations.

Third, the situation in Iraq might make an orderly withdrawal of U.S. forces nearly impossible. With the U.S. invasion ending Sunni dominance, Shiites and Kurds have rapidly gained influence in the country. The Shiite United Iraqi Alliance is the biggest party in the Iraqi parliament. In addition to controlling the government, it also receives support from the top Shiite authority, Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani. But Sunnis continue to stage violent revolts, and Kurdish separatists raise the possibility of the country's split. The security situation in Iraq cannot improve in the short term. Iraq's neighbors, namely Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Syria, exert strong influence on the country, while Russia and the European Union are also trying to cut themselves a slice of the Iraq reconstruction pie. It will be a tough test for the Obama administration to properly deal with the complicated situation in Iraq and establish a secure future.

Finally, interference from extremist Islamic forces is a big variable. What all extremist Islamic forces share in common is opposition to the United States. They will not sit back and do nothing while the United States tries to improve relations with the Arab and Islamic world. It is quite possible they will use this as an opportunity to take disruptive action that creates obstacles for Obama's new Middle East policy.

The author is an associate researcher with the Institute of Asian & African Studies, China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations