Opinion
The Journey from Surprise to Success
Zhou Mingwei, President of China International Publishing Group, comments on Trump's victory in an exclusive interview with Beijing Review
  ·  2016-11-10  ·   Source: Web Exclusive

Zhou Mingwei, President of China International Publishing Group (WANG XIANG)

Editor's Note: Just a few hours after the U.S. presidential election result came out, Beijing Review reporter Liu Yunyun had an opportunity to sit down with Zhou Mingwei, President of China International Publishing Group. Zhou, a seasoned expert on China-U.S. relations with decades of experience in both publishing and international relations, shared with Beijing Review how the new president-elect, Donald J. Trump, could transform his surprise election victory into a successful presidency.

Beijing Review: Were you surprised by Trump's victory in the U.S. presidential election?

Zhou Mingwei: Trump has never failed to surprise people. His winning of the election against all odds is just the tip of a much larger surprise that he could bring to the world.

The essential difference between a Hillary Clinton presidency and a Trump one is that everyone knows what Clinton would do, but no one knows what Trump will do. U.S. society is fed up with the establishment and has opted for change no matter what. President Barack Obama may have claimed "change" during his presidency, but many believe only an outsider can create real change.

Many U.S. media outlets portrayed a Trump presidency as an end to everything cherished by the people of the United States. I disagree. This atypical election may turn out to represent the starting point from which the United States becomes a more influential nation in the world. The United States under Donald Trump will focus more on its domestic agenda. He could potentially put a brake on interventionist activities and thereby make the United States more compatible with other nations that don't share its ideology. I personally think it is very immature to venture into an otherwise controllable situation like the South China Sea disputes. If the U.S. Government continues to believe that its foreign policy objectives--whether related to its pivot to Asia strategy or to U.S. involvement elsewhere in the world--can be attained by flexing its military might, then it is much mistaken.

Will Trump's future China policy bring any surprises?

I think our first and foremost challenge is that not much information about his China policy is available right now for assessment. We shall have to wait a while to see whom he chooses for his cabinet.

Trump's numerous comments about China during his campaign--on issues such as the South China Sea, trade disputes and job protection--amount to campaign rhetoric and will not necessarily form the basis of his policies.

As far as China is concerned, who becomes the next U.S. president isn't hugely significant, because China is willing to talk with anyone and engage in constructive communication. Trump is known for his pragmatism, and so is China. This could serve as a basis for healthy dialogue.

While Trump is not a Republican in the traditional sense, he has a clear bottom line: safeguarding U.S. interests. But, if he acts to secure national interests to the exclusion of everything else--for example, by resorting to protectionism--then his policies will be very unfavorable to China. He might, however, have a measure of global vision and an eye for the bigger picture; the common interests of the peoples of different countries. I believe he is more likely to adopt the latter approach.

Could Trump's presidency open a new chapter in China-U.S. relations?

It is very difficult to say. What's certainly new, of course, is that the United States has a new president. But, the possibility that the United States hereafter treating China as an enemy cannot be ruled out. External enemies engender a powerful unifying force for a country and boost its national morale. Being number two is hard, even if just from an economic perspective. Look how Japan suffered after it became the world's second largest economy! The United States will never hesitate to try to eliminate any perceived potential rival in order to maintain its global supremacy. Once it no longer has an enemy in sight, the U.S. will lose its direction.

Nonetheless, I have confidence that China and the United States can work together and that their relationship has a promising future. China has repeatedly stated that it has no intention of challenging the United States' dominance. At the same time, economic cooperation remains a great stabilizer for China-U.S. relations, and we expect this to hold particularly true under Trump's presidency.

How can the United States secure its supremacy in the face of the collective rise of other nations?

To maintain the U.S.'s unrivalled status in the world, Trump has two options: containment or engagement.

The United States under Trump is likely not to retreat from its global strategy, but rather to reinforce its influence on other countries in a different way. I think that as a successful businessman, Trump knows that no nation state can thrive on the collapse of others. The world is now so closely interlinked that everyone has a stake in others' success. Trump has highlighted his flair for negotiation, so by attracting more countries to engage in business with the United States, played according to its rules, the nation could prevail.

Will Trump relinquish U.S. hegemony in world affairs?

This is not going to happen. His campaign message was "make America great again," which means he is looking to increase, not diminish, U.S. influence. The difference is he may take an alternative path.

For instance, he posed no challenge to Russia during his campaign. Thus, he seems to have no intention of diverting attention from domestic predicaments by pointing fingers at outsiders. Rather, he might adopt more cost effective means of achieving his goal and thereby gain greater leverage for his country.

This year's U.S. election was not a question of choosing between two candidates, it was a choice between two different approaches to improving both the United States' domestic environment and strengthening the nation's international influence. As the outcome demonstrates, the U.S. electorate has abandoned the Clinton way and placed its hope in Trump.

People in the United States are not foolish; they would not choose a "stupid" man, as some call Trump, to be their president. At least on the economic front, I believe he will not compare unfavorably to Obama.

Copyedited by Chris Surtees

Comments to liuyunyun@bjreview.com

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