Opinion
Possibility in Adversity
Pacific Island nations' development dreams may get a boost if China and Australia cooperate in the region
By David Morris  ·  2019-01-21  ·   Source: NO. 4 JANUARY 24, 2019

A vehicle runs on Nabouwalu Road in Fiji on April 29, 2018. The road, once a dust trap in the dry season and bogged down in the wet season, has become a modern highway after it was renovated and extended with a Chinese loan (XINHUA)

Australia and China are strategic partners, with deeply integrated economies and growing people-to-people links. When there are differences, they are overcome with maturity and in the mutual interest of working together.

In recent times, however, the mood has turned sour in Oceania, with widespread talk of geopolitical rivalry over influence. Australia has stepped up its military engagements, outbid Chinese infrastructure projects and recently announced a $1.5-billion infrastructure financing facility for the Pacific Islands.

Is this a new contest of wills between Australia and China? Or can the two key partners in the South Pacific collaborate and help address the serious development needs of the island nations in the region?

Geopolitical hurdles

China and Australia have partnership potential for addressing climate change and sustainable development, the two priorities of the Pacific Islands, but geopolitics are getting in the way.

Since the election of U.S. President Donald Trump, military intelligence establishments everywhere have apparently convinced themselves of the inevitability of contest between China and the U.S. The rise of China, which is changing the global balance, is perceived as a threat, and a narrow, simplistic narrative is taking hold.

To understand whether the logic of competition is inevitable, or whether there is an alternative of cooperation, it is necessary to take a closer look at the imperatives driving the geopolitics of Australia and China.

Australia's first geopolitical imperative, as the continent at the end of the South East Asian archipelago, is to maintain a stable balance in East Asia for its own security and prosperity. Yet Australia as a middle power cannot ensure the security of the broader region alone. It must therefore work with partners to sustain regional stability and free trade, and its traditional partner has been the U.S. The rise of China, while enormously benefiting Australia economically, is regarded as disrupting the strategic balance. Therefore, Australia will need reassurance from China that its rise will strengthen regional stability and free trade.

Australia's second geopolitical imperative is to sustain its alliance with the U.S. and encourage U.S. engagement in preserving the strategic balance regionally and globally, underpinning free trade and the global rules-based order. Here, Australia is anxious. Not only has the U.S. flipped from four decades of constructive engagement with China to strategic competition, but it has also turned populist and under Trump, begun to dismiss free trade and the global rules-based order from which Australia has greatly benefited.

But Australia will not abandon the alliance that has underpinned its security for the entire post-war era. So it will need to focus on its national interests, particularly in its immediate region.

Australia's third geopolitical imperative is to secure the Australian continent and its approaches through high population growth, defense self-reliance and maintaining stability in the South Pacific. Australia maintains defense superiority in its immediate region, is growing in population, and has the wealth to build greater self-reliance to defend itself. But for two decades it has neglected the South Pacific, a region with weak governance, aid-dependent economies, facing an existential challenge from climate change. The comments about China's presence in the South Pacific are therefore adding to Australian anxiety.

Leadership in South Pacific

However, there is nothing to prevent Australia, with its abundant assets and good governance, from developing a grand strategy to meet its geopolitical imperatives. It has a strong track record of middle power leadership, building coalitions to shape its regional environment and encourage major powers' cooperation, such as the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum. Its alliance with the U.S. also brings it broader influence and strategic depth, as long as the U.S. remains focused on sustaining the balance in Asia.

However, Australia has suffered from a high turnover of leaders and a lack of strategic focus and policy continuity for a decade. Its current minority government, facing almost certain defeat within months, has fallen back onto old habits of whipping up geopolitical panic for political purposes. Some Australian ministers have offended their neighbors with bullying comments that imply Pacific Island governments have erred in borrowing from China for economic development projects.

We need to separate real issues from politics. First, Australia will want to ensure that its military remains the predominant force in the South Pacific and that any critical infrastructure is secure from foreign control. This is reasonable and despite the media hyperbole, does not have to be interpreted as a contest with China. China could contribute to regional stability by signaling its acceptance of Australia's leadership in the South Pacific.

Second, it is in Australia's interests, as much as those of the Pacific Island countries, to encourage sustainable development across the South Pacific region. China can be a partner here, as it has been for Australia in its massive economic expansion over recent decades. This is where Australia could change its language from the combative tone of recent months to signal its acceptance of China's legitimate role as an economic partner in the region.

China's top geopolitical imperative is to ensure its own stability and security since it is a vast and complex country with deep economic and other imbalances. That is why China's focus is much more domestic than global, unlike the traditional great powers of recent centuries that sought to control foreign territories.

China's second geopolitical imperative is to ensure its access to land and maritime trade routes, as it continues to develop its economy and build trade and investment links with diverse partners across the world. This includes maintaining economic cooperation with the great global markets of Europe, North America and Asia, as well as developing new integration with developing economies along the Belt and Road, including the South Pacific.

China's third geopolitical imperative is to find a new global balance that includes Asia. At present, China's interests are well served by the global rules-based order, which has allowed it to rise and prosper from open world markets.

China-Australia cooperation

So, the question is whether both Australia and China need to be wary of each other in the South Pacific, or whether they may be able to cooperate. Australia does have an overarching security imperative in the South Pacific, while China's primary interest is economic.

Can Australia-China cooperation in the Pacific contribute to broader regional stability and economic development that meets the geopolitical imperatives of both countries? It seems to be a possibility worth trying. A contest between Australia and China in the region is not inevitable if both focus on their national interests and the interests of the sovereign governments of the Pacific.

The Pacific Islands have been relatively silent about the geopolitical posturing. Perhaps they can see, like most, that the current Australian Government's days seem numbered, and are waiting for the new approach of the next government before passing judgment. The Pacific governments have their own views. None of the small island nations wish to be treated like pawns in a bigger game; all will seek at least transactional benefits from the new attention from Australia as well as China, and will want to keep the Pacific a region of peace.

Papua New Guinea is resource-rich, the other island nations have vast fishery resources and could be developed for high-earning tourism if there were direct air links and adequate local infrastructure.

Australia's new regional infrastructure focus could complement the Belt and Road Initiative proposed by China in helping realize this potential. Companies from both Australia and China could bring skills and experience to address the development needs of the region.

There are political risks and Australia-China cooperation could help mitigate these by ensuring that projects are developed within sustainable debt repayment plans and according to the highest standards of governance and transparency.

Fundamental to getting new infrastructure right will be listening to the needs of the local communities and aligning new investment with the economic development the islands themselves want. Both Australia and China have sometimes not listened closely enough; new cooperation models built in consultation with the region should help. Australia-China cooperation in the South Pacific could provide a good model for how two very different nations can work together.

The Pacific Islands are among the least developed nations on earth, distant from markets, sparsely populated, and lacking the capacity to find solutions to their challenges such as climate change, chronic disease and aid dependency. At least the geopolitical flurry has put them in the spotlight. Perhaps the region's strategic importance can help, finally, to bring sustainable development and opportunities to its people.

The story is an edited excerpt of an article originally published on Cnfocus.com

The author is a former Australian diplomat and current Chair of the United Nations Asia-Pacific Business Forum

Copyedited by Sudeshna Sarkar

Comments to yulintao@bjreview.com

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