Voice
A Sunset Glow
It is time for the G7 to share global leadership with developing countries
By Wang Lei  ·  2019-08-30  ·   Source: NO. 36 SEPTEMBER 5, 2019

A policeman conducts security checks in the city of Biarritz in France on August 23. The seaside resort saw heightened security for the G7 meeting (XINHUA)

The Group of Seven (G7) meeting in French seaside resort Biarritz on August 24-26 was convened at a time when the world is facing tectonic shifts in global power and the rift between the U.S. and Europe is widening as the former pursues an America First policy and the latter's ambition of a European revival is rekindling.

Though the meeting focused on international issues like the global economy, security landscape and climate change, it is a fact that the club of developed countries is now a setting sun, in both its international influence and actual efficiency.

A house in disorder

Born in 1975, the G7 was an important collaborative mechanism for the seven most developed industrial countries during the Cold War era—the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Germany, Italy, France and Japan—and was once the global leader. However, global power started shifting in the 21st century, with the rise of emerging economies such as China and India and the relative decline of the traditional industrial countries represented by the G7.

Especially after the global financial crisis in 2008, the Group of Twenty (G20), the bloc of most developed countries and many emerging ones, became the major platform for global economic coordination and governance. The G7 was reduced to a platform to coordinate the policies of a small circle of traditional developed economies.

Moreover, it faced internal contradictions and collisions. U.S. President Donald Trump adopted the America First policy and began demolishing the common rules and values upheld by Europe and the U.S. All these factors caused the recent G7 meetings to end inconclusively, even becoming a butt of jokes in the international community.

To avoid another failure, French President Emmanuel Macron met Russian President Vladimir Putin ahead of this year's meeting, which sent the signal that Russia would be invited back to the meeting of the bloc from which it was expelled in 2014. India, Australia, Egypt, South Africa, Chile and Burkina Faso were also invited to discuss some of the topics on the agenda in an effort by Macron to make the meeting more representative.

He also met Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif, trying to ease the escalating Iran nuclear crisis. But the efforts still produced limited fruits as the deep political and economic crisis in the Western world and their divergences cannot be settled in one meeting.

Inequalities among the U.S. and Europe have been mounting though the G7 meeting was themed on fighting inequality. It might be difficult to find the right prescription as the inequality in Western societies is deep-rooted, leaving Western countries unable to resolve the issue by themselves.

Income growth has become stagnant and jobs are being cut in Western societies. According to Kishore Mahbubani, a Singaporean researcher, productivity in the U.S. increased 96.7 percent from 1948 to 1973, and people's real wages rose by 91.3 percent. However, from 1973 to 2015, which was the era of globalization, productivity rose only 73.4 percent, while people's salaries grew just 11.1 percent. The same thing was seen in many other Western countries with the income of the middle class crawling or even downright stagnating.

What the West needs to do is to shape a new economic order which can create more opportunities for the middle class. According to a report by the Bank for International Settlements in 2017, the participation of Chinese and Eastern European labor forces in the global industrial chains partly resulted in the sluggishness of the income growth in Western countries. It was also the deep-rooted economic cause of Trump's successful election as U.S. president and of Brexit. The labor class in the U.S. and the UK directly felt the changes.

Internal troubles

In addition, all G7 members have been facing domestic problems at the moment. Political parties in the UK are fighting over Brexit while in Scotland, the clamor of the pro-independence forces is rising. New British Prime Minister Boris Johnson's no-deal Brexit—the imminent withdrawal of the UK from the European Union without an agreement on trade and other issues—has unsettled both the UK and the rest of the world.

In Italy, Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte has just experienced a resignation crisis. In Germany, Chancellor Angela Merkel is set to step down in 2021, or may be replaced earlier, and so has lost the ambition to make a difference in global governance. In France, the Yellow Vest protest movement reflects the deep crisis in French society.

The Trump administration is also in trouble. The U.S. shows signs of an economic recession. If that happens, it will hit Trump's 2020 election campaign. Also, the trade friction with China is far from being the "victory" Trump has bragged about.

The rift between the U.S. and Europe is widening and the G7 failed to coordinate on many issues. In trade and economy, they disputed on digital tax and Trump threatened to increase tariffs on French wine. In military matters, the U.S. asked its European allies to increase their financial contribution to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. On global governance, the two sides held opposite views on the Iran nuclear deal and the global climate issue. The divergence was so wide that Merkel said Europe can no longer rely on the U.S. and must fight for its own destiny.

Last year, Trump left the G7 meeting earlier and refused to accept the joint communiqué. To avoid this embarrassment, the G7 meeting this year ended without a joint communiqué for the first time in its 44-year history. A commentary in the Financial Times wryly said, "If Trump can make it through a French weekend without accelerating the demise of the West, that would be a victory of sorts."

While apparently getting along well with the other leaders, Trump actually repeatedly attacked the European Union, and praised a no-deal Brexit despite the adverse impacts it would have, dangling a bilateral free trade agreement before the UK. The U.S. is becoming increasingly isolated in the G7, and yet without its participation, the others can't reform the international order. It is therefore clear that the G7, troubled by its internal discord, cannot provide a prescription for today's global problems.

A reality check

There has been a turning point in global affairs though Western countries are refusing to accept the new landscape and adapt to it.

From the 1st century to 1820, China and India were the two largest economies. The European economy started to take off only after the 19th century, when the West began its era of dominance.

However, new power shifts started in the 21st century with the ascension of developing countries and emerging economies. Western countries' share in the global economy declined while that of China, India and other emerging economies showed a strong upward momentum. As of 2018, the G7 accounted for only about 40 percent of the global economy while the G20 made up more than 80 percent of it.

While the West took the lead in the 19th and 20th century, they have to now adapt to the new reality by learning to share global leadership with developing countries. The traditional industrial countries represented by the G7 should join the developing ones to push for the reform of the World Trade Organization and respond to global challenges. Only in this way can a new rule-based international political and economic order come into being.

The author is an associate researcher with the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations

Copyedited by Sudeshna Sarkar

Comments to yulintao@bjreview.com

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