As the dust settled over the Persian Gulf in early May, U.S. President Donald Trump began preparing for a landmark journey eastward. Weeks after a fragile ceasefire in the Iran conflict, codenamed "Operation Epic Fury" by the United States, Trump arrived in Beijing on May 13 for his first presidential visit to China in nearly a decade.

He last visited China in November 2017, a trip during which Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping reached broad consensus on bilateral relations and economic cooperation and signed a series of large-scale trade and investment agreements totaling over $250 billion. Since coming back into office in early 2025, Trump has sought a return visit. That trip was originally planned for late March, but was postponed due to the war in Iran.

The U.S.-led military campaign, involving American and Israeli strikes, intended to neutralize Iran's missile and naval capabilities while securing the Strait of Hormuz. After roughly 38 days of major combat, a ceasefire was announced. Both sides claimed success: Washington touted dismantled Iranian capabilities and reopened shipping lanes, while Tehran hailed a "historic and crushing defeat" of U.S. and Israeli ambitions. Broader economic ripple effects, including spiking oil prices, disrupted trade and long-term reconstruction, have fueled informal estimates reaching into the hundreds of billions of U.S. dollars.

Against this backdrop, President Trump's visit to China was neither a victory lap nor a desperate plea. Previously, he had described the trip as "amazing" and "potentially historic."

Beijing, a major buyer of Iranian oil and an important diplomatic player, reportedly stepped up mediation efforts during the conflict while also safeguarding its own energy interests. The summit offered a venue to manage great-power competition amid systemic stress, stabilizing global markets after the Hormuz chaos, addressing outstanding tariff issues and exploring ways to derisk economic relations without resorting to full decoupling.

Some commentators have suggested that Trump arrived in Beijing as a "defeated party," seeking concessions to avert economic collapse in the U.S. Such claims, however, overlook certain realities.

The American economy, while facing headwinds from inflation and higher oil prices, retains structural strengths in innovation and alliances.

The war's price tag, whether $60 billion or considerably higher, is significant but remains within the capacity of U.S. defense spending. Broader costs reflect global energy interdependence and put pressure on all major economies, including China.

Trump's visit will inevitably color the atmosphere of the second China-Arab States Summit, slated to be held in Beijing later this year. The gathering will celebrate the 70th anniversary of China-Arab diplomatic ties. The U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, together with the disruption of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, have made Arab countries keenly aware of the vulnerability of maritime trade in the Gulf region.

Arab leaders may therefore want to accelerate their eastward diversification strategies, deepening economic partnerships with China, the world's largest oil importer, through continued progress in the Belt and Road Initiative, oil trade, technological cooperation and other areas. (The Belt and Road Initiative is a China-proposed framework to boost connectivity along and beyond the ancient Silk Road routes—Ed.)

At the same time, the U.S. remains a key ally for many Arab states. Washington may need to reassure its Gulf partners, who are wary of over-reliance on any single power and are actively adopting hedging strategies, that it intends to remain engaged in the region.

A Xi-Trump meeting that yields pragmatic understandings on energy stability, regional de-escalation or investment flows could foster a more constructive environment. It would signal an attempt at great-power coordination to prevent wider spillover, potentially reassuring Arab states that do not wish to be caught in superpower crossfire. Conversely, visible friction between the two might embolden hedging behavior and accelerate diversification. Riyadh's dual-track approach, maintaining a U.S. security umbrella while deepening economic ties with the East, already exemplifies this balancing act.

Ultimately, Trump's eastward journey reflected a multipolar reality rather than a simple story of American decline. The diplomacy will test whether great powers can convert a battlefield pause into broader stability. The stakes, namely, energy flows, economic recovery and regional order in the Middle East, transcend any single narrative of triumph or defeat.

The author is director and founder of the Asia Center for Studies & Translation in Egypt

Copyedited by Elsbeth van Paridon

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