World
As the Trump 2.0 era is here, how do China and the world manage their relations with the U.S.?
By Li Wenhan  ·  2025-01-24  ·   Source: NO.5 JANUARY 30, 2025
U.S. President Donald Trump takes his oath of office during the inauguration ceremony in Washington, D.C., the United States, on January 20 (XINHUA)

For the first time in 40 years, frigid temperatures pushed the U.S. presidential inauguration indoors on January 20.

On the dais, with his wife next to him and surrounded by his children, Trump was sworn in as the 47th President of the United States. And so, his second term began.

He invited Chinese and other world leaders to his inauguration, an unusual gesture in American political customs.

Responding to the invitation, President Xi Jinping's special representative, Vice President Han Zheng, attended the ceremony in Washington, D.C.

A positive start

During his stay in the U.S., Han met with U.S. Vice President JD Vance, Tesla CEO Elon Musk, Chair Emeritus of the U.S. Brookings Institution John Thornton and others ahead of Trump's inauguration.

In his meeting with Vance, Han said Xi and Trump had reached important consensus on the development of China-U.S. relations in the next stage during a phone call on January 17.

Vance said the phone call between Trump and Xi was a good communication on important issues regarding bilateral ties. Economic and trade relations, he stressed, are important to both countries.

During the call, Xi said the two great nations of China and the U.S. are both committed to delivering a better life to their people. He added that the two countries can become partners and friends, contribute to each other's success, and enjoy common prosperity, which will benefit both countries and the whole world.

It is inevitable that China and the United States, two major countries with different national conditions, have some differences, and the key is to respect each other's core interests and major concerns, Xi said. 

During his meeting with U.S. business community members, Han praised the community as an "enduring backbone supporting China-U.S. relations," and added he hopes U.S. companies will continue to invest and take root in China. 

Wang Jisi, founding President of the Institute of International and Strategic Studies at Peking University, noted that Trump's recent goodwill gesture toward China presented Beijing a "tactical" opportunity for dialogue with Washington.

"China also has a need to communicate with Trump's team, to understand who they are and what their policies might be—policies that will differ from both Trump's first term and Joe Biden's administration," Wang said during a forum on China-U.S. relations and the global order in the Trump 2.0 era, hosted by Tsinghua University in Beijing on January 12.

He cannot do everything he wants

During his inaugural speech, Trump pledged that the U.S. will take control of the Panama Canal. Leading up to his inauguration, he also said he wanted to acquire Greenland, and mused about turning Canada into a U.S. state.

Wang acknowledged that Trump's statements likely contained some level of bluff, but they also reflected real goals he intended to pursue. As a former real estate tycoon, Trump's deal-making style often involved grandiose demands that mask his true intentions.

But some of those ambitions might exceed his abilities, Wang said, adding Trump has overestimated his strength and position. "Now it is America that is to make mistakes."

Zhang Yuyan, Director of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences' Institute of World Economics and Politics, who attended the forum, emphasized the difference between desire and ability. There was "still a big gap between some of the policies Trump has talked about and his ability to realize his goals," Zhang said.

"We shouldn't take every word Trump says seriously. The key is to focus on what he does once in office, not just what he says," Zhang stressed.

Trump has threatened steep tariffs on China both during his campaign and after winning office. He also warned in his inaugural speech to "put tariffs of 25, 30, 50, even 100 percent" on China if a TikTok deal—to find it a U.S. buyer—couldn't be reached in 75 days. Trump on January 20 ordered the Department of Justice to delay implementing the ban of the Chinese-owned social media app for 75 days.

Wang said Trump was unlikely to concentrate his efforts on China immediately after taking office. Scholars at the forum expected that Trump is likely to continue many of the Biden administration's China policy while scaling back his domestic policies and those involving allies.

Zhang referred to the Biden administration's National Security Strategy, released in 2022, which identified China as "the only competitor with both the intent and, increasingly, the capability to reshape the international order."

"Trump's administration will likely continue Biden's China policy, as the officials he has appointed share similar views on China," Zhang noted.

Yan Xuetong, honorary Dean of the Institute of International Relations at Tsinghua University, predicted that trade and technology tensions between China and the U.S. would escalate.

"Technological competition with China will likely be a central focus on Trump's agenda," Yan explained. "His China policy will prioritize preventing the narrowing of the technology gap, which he considers a critical issue."

Yan further speculated that Trump might find the Biden administration's "small yard, high fence" strategy inadequate and aim to relocate entire industrial chains within the U.S. However, he also anticipated a slight easing of political and ideological tensions.

The scholars agreed that national security has now overtaken economic growth as the top priority for major powers.

"The U.S.' China policy today reflects a willingness to bear costs," Zhang argued. "It is not about win-win outcomes or even zero-sum games—it is about losing less than the other side."

Yan emphasized that this shift in values could fundamentally alter how nations behave on the global stage.

Global challenges

President Trump on January 20 ordered the U.S. to withdraw from the Paris Agreement, once again placing the world's top historical emitter of greenhouse gases outside the global pact aimed at pushing nations to tackle climate change.

Under the international climate accord, first negotiated in 2015, countries around the world agreed to cut greenhouse gas emissions in an effort to limit global warming and forestall the worst impacts of climate change.

Trump has argued the agreement imposes unfair burdens on the American economy, and he withdrew the U.S. during his first term in office. The U.S. officially rejoined under former President Biden in 2021.

"China is concerned about the U.S. announcement that it will withdraw from the Paris Agreement. Climate change is a common challenge facing all of humanity. No country can stay out of it, and no country can be immune to it," Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun said at a regular press conference on January 21.

On the same day, Trump also announced the U.S. withdrawal from the World Health Organization. Zhang said that Trump's "America First" policies have prioritized domestic interests over global issues, and reduced the U.S. commitment to multilateral institutions and international problems like peacekeeping and disease control.

As the world's largest economy, the U.S. pivot has weakened the influence of multilateralism and global institutions, he said, adding this is a turning point for international systems.

"China and America are compelled to work together if there is going to be a stable 21st century. If competition and collaboration give way entirely to confrontation, a disorderly 21st century awaits us both," The New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman wrote after his December 2024 visit to China.

He suggested cooperation between the two countries in artificial intelligence and climate change might bring hope to the rest of the world to address the multiple critical challenges we face today.

Wang said he remains hopeful about the future and didn't think there's any need to be too pessimistic or discouraged. "After facing some big setbacks, things could still turn around. Human society doesn't always move forward in a straight line; it takes twists and turns. But the ultimate goal stays the same—to create a shared future for humanity, as the Chinese call it."

(Print Edition Title: Backward or Forward?)

Copyedited by Elsbeth van Paridon

Comments to liwenhan@cicgamericas.com 

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